April 2026: Market Report

April 2026 has been a volatile month, with adverse weather affecting fresh produce availability, as well as energy and transport pressures increasing throughout the supply chain. For service providers, this has led to ongoing margin strain and reduced flexibility across key lines.

Key Food & Beverage Movements

Prolonged cold, rain and earlier planting delays in Southern Europe have reduced yields and created supply gaps for tomatoes, broccoli, lettuce and brassicas. Meanwhile, high temperatures in Egypt have caused crop losses in sugar snap and mangetout, while flooding in Kenya has further delayed harvests and constrained availability.

Inconsistent growing conditions in North Africa have impacted berry volumes, particularly raspberries and blueberries. However, strawberry availability is improving as the Spanish season progresses, with UK volumes now beginning to come through. Seasonal transitions are also underway, with British rhubarb, Isle of Wight tomatoes, Jersey Royal potatoes, carrots, curly kale, wild garlic and asparagus providing strong additions to spring menus.

Meat supply has remained mostly stable, with lamb demand peaking over the Easter period before easing. After a sustained period of price growth, beef prices have eased slightly in recent weeks, with GB deadweight prime cattle values falling to around 630p/kg in mid-April. At retail, prices remain up 16.4% year-on-year, with volumes down 6.5% as consumers respond to higher shelf prices.

By comparison, plant-based mince and meatballs in selected retailers are priced up to 33% below equivalent meat products, with plant-based mince averaging 13% less than beef mince between January and March — highlighting an opportunity to incorporate lower-cost protein alternatives where appropriate.

Dairy markets continue to show volatility, with farmgate milk prices down 16.5% year-on-year, reflecting strong supply conditions. While this may ease costs across some dairy categories, any benefit to operators is likely to be gradual rather than immediate.

Overarching Market Pressures

The Middle East conflict has contributed to increased cost pressures, with wholesale gas rising 65% month-on-month and electricity up 20% in March. This is feeding into transport and distribution, with early signs of shipping disruption emerging and around half of logistics firms already passing on higher charges to customers.

Food inflation is also rising again: food and non-alcoholic drink inflation increased to 3.7% in March, up from 3.3% in February, with prices rising 0.3% month-on-month. The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) has warned that this rate could exceed 9% by the end of 2026.

Agricultural input inflation is reported at 7.6% (more than double the 3.0% general inflation rate), creating sustained pressure from farm level through to operators, particularly where products rely on fuel, fertiliser, imports or chilled distribution.

This is occurring within a weak demand environment, with UK GDP growth around 1% and consumer spending expected to grow only 1.1%. Consumer confidence fell four points to -25 in April, while eating-out market growth is expected to remain modest at 1.6–2.4%. At the same time, labour costs and business rates are increasing, maintaining pressure on operator margins.

Outlook and Opportunities

While current market conditions are challenging, opportunities to control costs remain. Consolidating suppliers and aggregating orders can strengthen purchasing leverage; however, dual sourcing should be retained for high-risk categories to mitigate supply disruption. 

Securing fixed pricing agreements or volume-based rebates, alongside reducing delivery frequency, can further lower distribution costs. Where fuel surcharges have been introduced, these should be reviewed against current market rates and formally challenged where no longer justified.

Flexibility should also be prioritised. Agreed product substitutions, supported by menu re-engineering, enable a more agile response to supply fluctuations while minimising reliance on volatile imports. Focusing on seasonal UK produce can improve both availability and consistency, and cross-utilising ingredients across dishes helps minimise waste.

These measures should be reinforced through tighter stock control, particularly for short shelf-life items. A similar discipline applies to energy — reducing idle equipment, improving refrigeration efficiency, and reviewing high-consumption areas such as laundry to help limit unnecessary usage.

To learn more about how evolving market conditions may impact your business, and the steps you can take in response, book a call with our team.